Is the market peaking out?
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In today's newsletter:
💡 Is the the market peaking out?
📣 AI and big data tokens surge 131%
📈 Solana leads all blockchains in daily Net Inflows… but the Ethereum ecosystem dominates 2024
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💡 Insight
Is the the market peaking out?
Bitcoin is up about 37% over the last 30 days.
The Fear & Greed Index indicates that we are currently in ‘Extreme Greed’ Mode.
So, the question is: “Is the the market peaking out?”
In this issue, we’ll review some key market indicators to assess where we’re at in the cycle.
MVRV Ratio: 🟢 Undervalued
Bitcoins Market Value is currently 2.79x its "Realized Value”, a proxy for the cost basis of all Bitcoins in circulation — measured by the value of each bitcoin on the network the last time it was moved onchain.
In the last cycle, the MVRV ratio peaked at 7.6. In the prior cycles, it peaked out much higher.
Consumer Trends: 🟡 Fairly Valued
Bitcoin interest on Google is a proxy for measuring the current interest of retail investors. We are still far from 2021 levels but we’re entering in the “retail zone”.
Mayer Multiple: 🟢 Undervalued
The Mayer Multiple measures the difference between the current price of bitcoin and the 200-day moving average. According to Trace Mayer, a value of 2.4 or more is considered a speculative bubble. The current multiple is 1.39.
TVL Ratio: 🔴 Overvalued
The TVL Ratio compares a project’s market cap to its total value locked.
During the 2021 peak, the global crypto TVL Ratio was 15x while now it’s 28x.
November 2021
Market Cap: $2.7T
Total Value Locked: $175B
TVL Ratio: 15x
November 2024
Market Cap: $3.1T
Total Value Locked: $110B
TVL Ratio: 28x
BTC Dominance Ratio: 🟢 Undervalued
BTC dominance is currently at 60%. It was closer to 40% when the cycle peaked out.
Our View
BTC typically takes the energy out of the market in the early stages of a frenzied bull market. I believe that’s the phase we are in right now 👇🏻
📣 Update
AI and big data tokens surge 131%
Artificial intelligence and big data tokens have seen their market capitalization soar by 131.4% since hitting their lowest point of the year on June 8, riding the momentum of Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run.
On Nov. 19, the total market capitalization of AI and big data crypto projects and tokens grew to $42.1 billion, led by $NEAR, $ICP and $RENDER.
📈 Signal
Solana leads all blockchains in daily Net Inflows…
1D Chart
… but the Ethereum ecosystem dominates 2024
YTD Chart
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