Extreme Fear Is Back — Here’s How to Turn It Into a Plan
PLUS: Sellers Are Running Out of Profit (Not a Bottom Call)
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In today's newsletter:
💡 Extreme Fear Is Back — Here’s How to Turn It Into a Plan
📣 Bitmine Just Bought $98M of ETH During the Dip
📈 Sellers Are Running Out of Profit (Not a Bottom Call)
Let’s dive in!
💡 Insight
Extreme Fear Is Back — Here’s How to Turn It Into a Plan
The crypto market is doing that thing again.
Sentiment has slipped from “cautious” to “panicked,” with the Fear & Greed Index printing levels we usually only see during true stress events — think the COVID crash or the FTX collapse.
And yes, the obvious comparison is tempting: those moments became legendary buying opportunities.
But here’s the part most X threads skip: extreme fear doesn’t signal an exact bottom.
It signals a zone — a period where downside is still possible, but the risk/reward starts shifting toward the patient buyer.
So instead of trying to predict what happens next, let’s do what actually works: build a repeatable plan you can execute even when the timeline is messy.
Why This Matters: Sentiment vs Fundamentals Are Diverging
What makes this moment interesting isn’t just the fear.
It’s the contrast.
Sentiment is acting like the ecosystem is collapsing
Meanwhile, the structural backdrop is arguably improving: more institutional involvement, clearer regulatory direction in several markets, and better tech + infrastructure than past cycles
That mismatch doesn’t guarantee a rally tomorrow — but it often creates the kind of asymmetry you want as an investor: limited upside priced in, but plenty of upside available if conditions normalize.
The Practical Playbook: How to Buy Into Fear Without Getting Wrecked
Treat “Extreme Fear” as a range, not a timestamp
During COVID and FTX, fear stayed elevated for weeks. Price chopped, wicked lower, and did everything it could to shake people out.
What to do instead: decide in advance how much you’re willing to deploy and scale in over time.
Example ladder (adjust to your risk):
Step 1 (now): deploy 25–35% of your planned cash
Step 2: deploy another 25–35% if BTC drops ~8–12% from here or alts broadly flush -15–25%
Step 3: deploy the remaining 30–50% only when you get either:
a clear capitulation day (big red + heavy volume), or
a key reclaim (trend confirmation)
Result: you’re buying weakness without betting your entire portfolio on one day.
📣 Update
Bitmine Just Bought $98M of ETH During the Dip
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) added 51,162 ETH (~$98M) last week while ETH slid to a two-week low near $1,855 before bouncing back toward ~$1,900.
Management framed this as a deliberate “mini crypto winter” strategy: keep buying ETH methodically and optimize yield on holdings (i.e., staking / treasury yield management).
📈 Signal
Sellers Are Running Out of Profit (Not a Bottom Call)
BTC’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is back near levels we usually see around bear-market bottoms.
What it means
Fewer people are selling BTC at a profit → the “easy profit-taking” supply is drying up. If it drops below 1, more BTC is being sold at a loss than at a profit (that’s typically a deeper stress zone).
What’s different this time
We’re only about -50% off the ATH, yet this metric is already at a “bottom-like” floor. That can mean either capitulation is happening earlier… or there’s more downside ahead.
→ Recognize the zone, don’t try to nail the exact bottom.
Take action 🚀
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