👑 The Long-Term Crypto Investor Playbook

Our full framework for evaluating altcoins based on fees, tokenomics, and institutional demand — now free for Black Friday.

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👑 How to Pick Long-Term Crypto Winners

The crypto opportunity hasn’t vanished — it’s evolved. As institutions enter the space, yield expectations rise, and macro resets shift capital flows, what used to work (spray‑and‑pray meme speculations) is no longer a reliable playbook.

Instead, success will go to investors who apply discipline, data, and conviction.

Recent trends reinforce this: in Q4 2025, macro conditions remain supportive for risk assets, with potential rate cuts and large pools of idle capital waiting to rotate into crypto.

At the same time:

• Big capital flows into major assets — the dominance of Bitcoin has dipped (from ~64% to ~57%), even if it bounced recently. That suggests room for altcoins — but only if they have real fundamentals

• The recent inflows into Ethereum (ETH) — including ETFs — highlight how institutional demand is reshaping supply dynamics.

• The environment favors “quality over hype”: protocols generating real fees, locked or staked supply, and real economic usage now stand out more than ever.

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The Framework for Long-Term Crypto Picks

Based on our view, 2–3 of the 20 most valuable companies in the world will be crypto-native within a decade.

But the game has changed. The opportunity is still asymmetric — picking the right protocols now requires more precision than ever.

Here’s a refined 4‑pillar framework to evaluate crypto assets for multi-year upside, especially in an environment where institutional capital, macro risk, and competition are rising.

1. Protocol Utility: Follow the Fees

Why it matters: Real revenue → real demand → real value capture.

What to check:

• Protocol revenue and fee growth (use tools like Token Terminal, DeFiLlama)

• On‑chain GDP (i.e. total fees and activity generated by applications on that chain or protocol)

• Growth in user activity, not just speculative volume

What signs you want to see:

• Rising fees and revenue quarter over quarter

• Usage increasing even when price stagnates

➡️ Example from recent data: some chains in the “value investing” report posted huge fee growth — standouts like Acala, Starknet and Internet Computer saw dramatic increases in fees or TVL.

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2. Anchored Supply: Track Where the Coins Are

Supply locked or staked or held by long‑term entities reduces sell pressure. That creates a structural tailwind for price appreciation.

What to monitor:

• % of supply held long‑term (1+ year dormancy)

• Supply staked, in ETFs, institutional custody or “treasuries” (corporate holdings)

• Exchange balances: are they decreasing (holders not ready to sell)?

What good looks like:

• High dormancy (long-term holders not selling)

• Rising staking / institutional holdings

• Declining exchange balances

➡️ Recent insight: ETH now has more supply locked or otherwise off exchanges (staking, ETFs, treasuries) — reducing the floating supply available to dump.

Also, “Digital Asset Treasuries” (corporate / institutional holders) now own non-trivial shares of BTC and ETH supply — adding a baseline floor and reducing volatility.

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3. Ecosystem & Network Growth: Bet on Platforms, Not Just Tokens

What to look at:

• DeFi TVL, growth in stablecoin supply and velocity on the chain

• Activity and fee growth on Layer‑2s or side‑chains if applicable

• Diversity of applications: DeFi, infra, real‑world use cases, not just speculative tokens

• Chain market cap relative to usage metrics (to spot undervalued vs overvalued chains)

What signals you’re after:

• Chains with rising TVL / fees / active dApps

• Chains where usage is increasing but price hasn’t run up — potential undervaluation

• Chains attracting institutional interest or building infrastructure for long‑term growth

According to our “Value Investing Ratings – November ’25,” some L1/L2 blockchains show a combination of strong usage, TVL, fees — indicating they may be undervalued relative to their network fundamentals.

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4. Macro & Market Context: Know When to Act (and When to Wait)

Crypto doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Macro backdrop (interest rates, liquidity), institutional flows, and broader market sentiment significantly influence performance — especially for altcoins.

Guiding principle: Use a “smart exposure” approach — enter when macro + market conditions align, and stay selective otherwise.

Rules of thumb:

• Check how Bitcoin is performing: when BTC is showing strong momentum (higher highs + higher lows, strong volume), altcoins tend to outperform.

• If BTC is weak or choppy → stay selective, focus on highest-conviction setups; avoid broad alt exposure

• Monitor liquidity inflows (e.g., ETFs, institutional capital), and macro triggers (rate cuts, monetary policy shifts)

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Combining It All: Multi‑Lens Evaluation + Portfolio Discipline

A powerful crypto portfolio isn’t built on a single metric — but on a combination of quality signals, assessed through different lenses (fundamentals, network growth, supply dynamics, and macro context).

Here’s a simplified decision‑flow you can use when evaluating any crypto asset:

1. Does the protocol generate real fees or value (Protocol Utility)?

2. Is supply sticky?

3. Is the ecosystem growing?

4. Is macro & market context favorable for altcoins (Macro & Market)?

5. Is valuation compelling (market cap vs fundamentals)?

If the answer is “yes” to at least 3 of these — that’s a signal worth serious conviction.

Then: build a long-term position, avoid over-diversification, and treat your allocation like a multi-year capital bet — not a trading lottery ticket.

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And that’s it for today.

Thanks for reading!

See you on Saturday