This Is When We’d Exit the Market (And Why)
PLUS: AAVE is generating $131M in annualized revenue — with almost no token incentives
Hi Investor 👋
welcome to a ✅ free edition ✅ of Altcoin Investing Picks, the most actionable crypto newsletter.
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In today's newsletter:
💡 This Is When We’d Exit the Market (And Why)
📣 Private Equity Firm Bridgepoint to Buy Majority of Crypto Audit Specialist ht.digital
📈 AAVE is generating $131M in annualized revenue — with almost no token incentives
Let’s dive in!
💡 Insight
This Is When We’d Exit the Market (And Why)
Over the last few weeks, we talked about the importance of sticking to your investment thesis.
Today, let’s talk about the other side:
Every thesis should have a clear exit plan—a set of signals that tell you when it’s time to reduce exposure or sell.
Here are 4 macro signals we are watching closely. If these turn in the wrong direction, we reassess our positions in crypto:
1. Inflation Starts Rising Again
Why it matters: Higher inflation often leads to higher interest rates, which reduces liquidity and puts pressure on risk assets like crypto.
→ U.S. inflation has been slowly climbing since April, according to Truflation, but it’s not alarming—yet.
What to watch: If inflation goes above 4% and holds, it could signal trouble ahead.
2. Interest Rate Cuts Get Delayed or Cancelled
Why it matters: Markets (including crypto) often price in future interest rate cuts. If cuts are delayed or canceled, it removes one source of optimism.
→ Recently, the odds of a December rate cut flipped multiple times, based on data from Polymarket.
What to watch: If markets expect no cuts in the near term, crypto prices could struggle.
3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) Resumes
Why it matters: QT is when the Federal Reserve removes money from the financial system. Less liquidity usually means more pressure on markets.
→ The Fed can either reinvest in U.S. treasury bills or let them expire. If they stop reinvesting, that’s QT.
What to watch: If QT picks up again, it could reduce demand for risk assets.
4. The U.S. Dollar Strengthens Sharply
Why it matters: A stronger dollar makes investors less likely to move into riskier assets like crypto.
→ The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been ticking up recently, which isn’t great for altcoins—but not yet a major concern.
What to watch: If DXY rises above 108, it may signal a risk-off environment.
📣 Update
Private Equity Firm Bridgepoint to Buy Majority of Crypto Audit Specialist ht.digital
Bridgepoint agreed to buy a majority stake in ht.digital, a London-based specialist provider of audit, accounting and assurance to the digital asset industry.
Ht.digital has delivered organic revenue growth of c.100% over the last two years.
Sky News reported the deal was worth 200 million pounds ($262 million).
📈 Signal
AAVE is generating $131M in annualized revenue — with almost no token incentives
In a market flooded with projects burning money to attract users, AAVE stands out: it’s quietly becoming one of the most profitable DeFi protocols without relying on heavy token emissions.
This is what some are calling the “revenue meta” — where real usage and protocol fees matter more than hype or yield farming.
As capital gets smarter, investors are starting to favor projects with sustainable business models and actual cash flow — not just incentives.
Take action 🚀
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Thanks for reading!
See you next time
The DXY signal is probaly the most actionable one here. Watching it cross 108 gives you a clear trigger point rather than trying to interpret whether inflation is trending in the wrong directon. The AAVE example is interesting too because it shows not every project needs to burn through capital to sustain usage. That revenue meta shift feels like it seprates projects that have real value from the ones just riding hype.