BTC may be facing a tougher liquidity backdrop
PLUS: Stablecoin Supply Keeps Expanding
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In todayâs newsletter:
đĄ BTC may be facing a tougher liquidity backdrop
đŁ Deutsche Börse Invests $200M in Kraken Parent Payward
đ Stablecoin Supply Keeps Expanding
Letâs dive in!
đĄ Insight
BTC may be facing a tougher liquidity backdrop
Bitcoin may be heading into a less supportive macro backdrop.
The factual setup is straightforward:
February PCE showed a softer US consumer, with income contracting and real spending barely growing
March CPI came in at 3.3%, with energy driving most of the increase.
At the same time, Delphiâs US Policy LEI is rolling over, and Delphi says it has historically led real yields by about six months.
That matters because higher real yields usually mean tighter financial conditions. In 2022, a similar mix of tighter policy and an energy shock coincided with Bitcoinâs correlation to real yields turning deeply negative.
Our view is that this is not a call for panic.
It is a reminder that macro may matter more than usual here. If real yields move higher again, Bitcoin could face a liquidity headwind, and altcoins would likely be even more exposed.
The takeaway is not âsell everything.â It is ârespect the regime.â In weaker liquidity environments, selectivity matters more than narrative.
đŁ Update
Deutsche Börse Invests $200M in Kraken Parent Payward
Deutsche Börse Group is investing $200 million in Payward, Krakenâs parent company, in a deal that gives the German exchange operator a 1.5% fully diluted stake and implies a valuation of about $13.3 billion. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter, pending regulatory approval.
Why it matters
This is more than a funding round. Deutsche Börse is one of Europeâs most established market infrastructure operators, and its decision to take an equity stake in Payward suggests the relationship is moving from partnership to long-term strategic alignment. Both companies have said they want to build more unified infrastructure for institutional clients across traditional and crypto markets.
đ Signal
Stablecoin Supply Keeps Expanding
Stablecoins now sit at $300.9 billion in aggregate market cap, and Token Terminal outlined three possible paths for the end of 2026.
The bear case is a 10% decline to $271.3 billion, which likely would require a meaningful de-peg event or a major regulatory setback.
The neutral case is 15% growth to $346.6 billion, driven by steady organic expansion and early effects from the GENIUS Act.
The bull case is 40% growth to $422.0 billion, which would likely require a step-change in adoption, stronger payments usage, or a new wave of issuance enabled by regulation.
Why it matters
Stablecoin supply is one of the clearest indicators of onchain dollar liquidity. If supply keeps growing, that should be supportive for exchange activity, settlement rails, tokenized finance, and the parts of crypto tied to payments and onchain financial services.
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